Oscar Hopes & Predictions 2016

Hello, Dear Readers!

I'm going to act like I have a big fan base of readers. Whoever reads this, thanks for reading this!

I almost didn't do this but I was then tasked by a friend to do it, so I might as well get my thoughts out there. The thing with this year's Oscars, aside from all the other things with this year's Oscars, is that I just finally got through basically all of the major films two nights ago. So with the big thing happening tomorrow, there's not much time and if you wanted to read thinkpieces about them then you've already had plenty of chances elsewhere. No matter. If you're reading this you're probably my friend and you probably just want my specific perspective on them.

First, here is what I have NOT seen:
Trumbo, The Danish Girl, 45 Years, Joy, Creed, three of the animated features (Shaun the Sheep Movie, Boy & The World, When Marnie Was There), Cinderella, Winter on Fire, Cartel Land, ALL of the shorts (though I'm considering using my Google rewards monies to watch the live action and most of the animated shorts tonight and/or tomorrow...), any of the foreign language films aside from Mustang, The 100-Year-Old Man..., and any of the movies with just songs nominated (but I listened to the songs, just now!).

So I'll go from the bottom up, based on the order they appear on the official webpage. One of these years I'll update my spreadsheet to be in the order they are presented in for the actual show!

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Nominees: Bridge of Spies (Coen Brothers!), Spotlight, Ex Machina, Inside Out, Straight Outta Compton
Hopes: I would be quite happy if Ex Machina won. Just the whole story is so well told, so logical yet I didn't see the very logical ending coming. Just a great movie overall and I want it to win something. All of the nominees are very good movies though.
Predictions: I'm going Spotlight. And I won't be the least bit upset about it.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Nominees: The Martian, The Big Short, Room, Carol, Brooklyn
Hopes: I'm going Carol. Since it was snubbed in the best picture and director races, it should get something and the writing was beautiful. I can't speak to how well it was adapted from its source material, but the final product came out so wonderfully.
Predictions: The Big Short because I think everybody loved it. Plus it did a great job of simplifying a complicated subject matter that it was very important that everyone understood.

Visual Effects

Nominees: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Ex Machina, The Martian, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Hopes: How can you not go with Mad Max? All the amazing practical effects, the whole look is a big part of what made the movie so special.
Predictions: Mad Max all the way.

Sound Mixing

Nominees: Bridge of Spies, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Hopes: Sticking with Mad Max for all of the technical awards.
Predictions: The Revenant. No real reason.

Sound Editing

Nominees: The Martian, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Sicario
Hopes: Mad Max
Predictions: Mad Max. I don't know. Maybe it should be my prediction for both sound ones. So the past several years since I started keeping track, EVERY TIME there is ONE difference between the two sound categories. As if they are just trying to prove that they are different.

Live Action/Animated/Documentary Shorts

I'm just sitting this one out for now. Unless I happen to see them. I did see there was a Don Hertzfeldt one for animated, so let's just go with that one.

Best Song

Nominees: "Simple Song #3," "Til It Happens to You," "Manta Ray," "Earned It," "Writing's On the Wall" 
Hopes: As a longtime Antony & The Johnsons fan who didn't keep up and didn't even know she was now ANOHNI, I'm going to hope for this longshot to pull through. "Manta Ray."
Predictions: Gotta go Gaga, "Til It Happens to You." I just listened to all the songs and that is a powerful one. The kind that wins these kinds of things.

Original Score

Nominees: Bridge of Spies, Sicario, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, The Hateful Eight, Carol
Hopes: As I think about it some more, I think Carol had the most striking score.
Predictions: One of the two veterans probably. I'm going to say Ennio Morricone for The Hateful Eight because he is legendary.

Makeup & Hairstyling

Nominees: The Revenant, The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window, Mad Max: Fury Road
Hopes: As cool as Leo's beard was, Mad Max baby.
Predictions: Mad Max baby.

Foreign Language Film

Nominees: A War, Son of Saul, Embrace of the Serpent, Theeb, Mustang
Hopes: Since Mustang is the only one I saw, I'll go with that one. I saw it at the Denver Film Festival and it was a definite highlight. Just a great film. Of course, I'd have to see others to see if I am justified in this opinion!
Predictions: No idea. I think I heard Embrace of the Serpent was great, so I'll go with that one. Last minute edit: Son of Saul is that holocaust movie, it's totally going to win.

Film Editing

Nominees: The Reventant, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Big Short
Hopes: Sticking with Mad Max. I think I want it to just dominate! But the fact that it remained coherent for an entire feature-length car chase scene means it was edited super awesomely.
Predictions: The Big Short because editing had such a crucial role in this film. It was disjointed yet somehow coherent.

Documentary Feature

Nominees: Amy, The Look of Silence, Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom, Cartel Land, What Happened, Miss Simone?
Hopes: The Look of Silence. Just the audacity of this film. Just the human face it put on genocide. Just the restraint shown by the protagonist and filmmaker when confronting these monsters. The sadness. The needing to forgive, not the need of the perpetrators, but the need of the victims to be able to forgive these people. It was so powerful and left me with a lot to think about. Possibly even greater than its companion piece the (similarly nominated, didn't win) The Act of Killing.
Predictions: Amy all the way. Those music documentaries always win. I'm picking this over the Nina Simone one because it was just so heartbreaking and also a great commercial success.

Directing

Nominees: George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road, Adam McKay for The Big Short, Lenny Abrahamson for Room, Alexandro G. Inarritu for The Revenant, Tom McCarthy for Spotlight
Hopes: Listen, all of these movies were great in their own ways. But if we're talking director as an auteur, as the uncompromising visionary, I can't vote for anyone but George Miller. Mad Max was a singular vision if I've ever seen one.
Predictions: It could be anyone. I'm going with Tom McCarthy for Spotlight just because directing is often associated with working with actors and the actors in Spotlight all did such a terrific job.

Costume Design

Nominees: Carol, Cinderella, The Danish Girl, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant
Hopes: I kind of loved the outfits in Carol. I think it's because I am so into 50s fashion. I don't know. But Rooney Mara's clothing was pretty great.
Predictions: The Danish Girl just because. I never know with this costume stuff!

Production Design

Nominees: The Revenant, The Danish Girl, The Martian, Bridge of Spies, Mad Max: Fury Road
Hopes: Are you kidding? Mad Max was just one big exercise in production design!
Predictions: The Martian because hey, Mars!

Cinematography

Nominees: The Hateful Eight, Carol, The Revenant, Sicario, Mad Max: Fury Road
Hopes: Pretty hopeless at this point until he works on another huge Oscar contender prestige production, but can Roger Deakins please please please win for Sicario? Every time I see one of his films, it is abundantly clear that he is far and away the best DP in the business. All the cool tricks he comes up with in silhouette, camera movement, smoke/fog, etc.
Predictions: Robert Richardson for The Hateful Eight. Because it was pretty damn cool looking in 70mm. Colorado is a beautiful state!

Animated Feature

Nominees: Shaun the Sheep Movie, Anomalisa, Inside Out, Boy & The World, When Marnie Was There
Hopes: I don't really have hope for Anomalisa but I want it to win. I'm a Kaufman lifer. I know it's not going to win. And as my friend said, it's "lesser Kaufman." But even lesser Kaufman leaves you with a lot to think about and this was a really cool minor story about a short lived anomaly. Pretty beautiful in its simplicity with just a few tricks thrown in there that you could only do effectively with animation.
Predictions: Inside Out. And that's perfectly fine. One of the best Pixar movies yet, and that is really saying something. Pretty much a lock though.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Rachel McAdams for Spotlight, Rooney Mara for Carol, Jennifer Jason Leigh for The Hateful Eight, Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs, Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl
Hopes: Jennifer Jason Leigh! Big fan, and she was great. I'd also like to note however that Rooney Mara was so great in Carol and could have been considered the lead of that movie.
Predictions: I hear they are going crazy over Alicia Vikander, so let's say her. I didn't see The Danish Girl but she was great in Ex Machina this year!

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Sylvester Stallone for Creed, Tom Hardy for The Revenant, Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies, Mark Ruffalo for Spotlight, Christian Bale for The Big Short
Hopes: I liked Mark Rylance so much in Bridge of Spies. Such a great subtle performance that made such a likeable character, which was crucial (as my friend pointed out, the movie just wouldn't have worked if his character wasn't likeable).
Predictions: Hollywood loves a comeback story, so Sylvester Stallone it is! Creed is also the one nominee in this category that I didn't see.

Lead Actress

Nominees: Brie Larson for Room, Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years, Cate Blanchett for Carol, Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn, Jennifer Lawrence for Joy
Hopes: Man, this is one stacked field this year. I only saw three of them, but they were fantastic performances. But I think the most heartbreaking performance was by Brie Larson in Room. Even as kind of a support player to the child (that kid was amazing too!), she did such a beautiful job as someone just doing the best she can for her son under extremely horrendous circumstances.
Predictions: I was originally going to say Cate Blanchett (even though Rooney Mara probably had a stronger performance in that film), but I'm just going to put all my eggs in the Brie Larson room.

Lead Actor

Nominees: Bryan Cranston for Trumbo, Matt Damon for The Martian, Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant, Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs, Eddie Redmayne for The Danish Girl
Hopes: This field seems pretty weak by comparison. Everyone did their usual good work (just assuming with Cranston & Redmayne), so Leonardo DiCaprio going above and beyond kind of makes sense to me. He did pretty well.
Predictions: Leonardo DiCaprio and his grunting and limping. Duh.

Best Picture

Nominees: The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight
Hopes: I'm going to just rank them because I want to say something about each of them.
1. Mad Max: Fury Road. As I said before, this is the one. The fact that a silly action movie with badass guitar flamethrowers is even my top pick speaks to the astonishing feat that this film was. Wow.
2. Room. Not only was the acting phenomenal, it managed the incredible feat of making a movie about being stuck in a shed somewhat uplifting, it showed the perspective of a child growing up in that shed (the whole world as far as he knew), and it just made me cry.
3. Spotlight. Because of all the great performances and the portrayal of journalism...I don't know, it was just intense.
4. The Big Short. There is no good guy. It is an important film for people to see and understand. It is infuriating but necessary. And just enough funny.
5. Brooklyn. A very pleasant film and I didn't mention her in the acting category but Saoirse Ronan just carried the whole film. A good portrayal of immigrants that we all can relate to, because almost all of us in this country are descendents of immigrants. Look like you know where you're going.
6. The Martian. A pretty astonishing tale of survival. Matt Damon was so charismatic and brought so much to what would have been a pretty bleak movie. Cool science too!
7. The Revenant. A pretty astonishing tale of survival. What keeps you alive? I feel like I kind of hate on this movie more than I should. I just think the director is overrated and after finally seeing this movie that it was also kind of overrated. I found myself bored at times, maybe I just wasn't in the right space for it. Still, lots of great performances, some very intense action sequences, some great cinematography, a good package.
8. Bridge of Spies. I don't like putting this on the bottom because I liked it quite a bit. But all eight of these were quite good. I just felt like this was Steven Spielberg doing his thing, which is very competent (even expert) directing, and everyone doing a very competent job (even expert, in the case of Mark Rylance), and putting together a quite good movie. Just not the best picture of the year.
Prediction: The Revenant. It seems pretty unstoppable at this point. I'd be pleasantly surprised if one of the others wins though.

So I guess I'll see how happy/psychic I am this year! I don't have the best record with these things.


And finally, my general comment about the Academy Awards: There are always going to be snubs, horror will rarely if ever get any recognition, and there is a huge problem with the lack of diversity. Kubrick never won except for visual effects. Hitchcock never won. The best films out there are often completely unrecognized by critics and the academy alike. See Dope, It Follows, and Liza the Fox Fairy for some of my personal favorites of 2015 that received no nominations. Watch Tangerine (I didn't see it but it seems essential). And if Carol had been nominated for best picture it'd probably be at #3 on my list up there. Anyway, I'm saying all that to make a point. The Academy Awards are important to me in spite of all that. For one, they tend to be quite good movies and I always make a point to try to see as many as I can. It's my excuse to see more movies. And the nominated movies play at strip malls and the like. Which means more people than usual are seeing these artistic movies by artistic people. Sure, they could see them and more at art houses, and they should. But they don't. So this is a fairly reliable support system for smart cinema. Yes, they all have studio support pushing for them to get nominations, rather than being an organic thing, but the end product is still generally a victory for quality cinema.