Showing posts with label oscars. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oscars. Show all posts

Saturday, February 27, 2016

Oscar Hopes & Predictions 2016

Hello, Dear Readers!

I'm going to act like I have a big fan base of readers. Whoever reads this, thanks for reading this!

I almost didn't do this but I was then tasked by a friend to do it, so I might as well get my thoughts out there. The thing with this year's Oscars, aside from all the other things with this year's Oscars, is that I just finally got through basically all of the major films two nights ago. So with the big thing happening tomorrow, there's not much time and if you wanted to read thinkpieces about them then you've already had plenty of chances elsewhere. No matter. If you're reading this you're probably my friend and you probably just want my specific perspective on them.

First, here is what I have NOT seen:
Trumbo, The Danish Girl, 45 Years, Joy, Creed, three of the animated features (Shaun the Sheep Movie, Boy & The World, When Marnie Was There), Cinderella, Winter on Fire, Cartel Land, ALL of the shorts (though I'm considering using my Google rewards monies to watch the live action and most of the animated shorts tonight and/or tomorrow...), any of the foreign language films aside from Mustang, The 100-Year-Old Man..., and any of the movies with just songs nominated (but I listened to the songs, just now!).

So I'll go from the bottom up, based on the order they appear on the official webpage. One of these years I'll update my spreadsheet to be in the order they are presented in for the actual show!

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Nominees: Bridge of Spies (Coen Brothers!), Spotlight, Ex Machina, Inside Out, Straight Outta Compton
Hopes: I would be quite happy if Ex Machina won. Just the whole story is so well told, so logical yet I didn't see the very logical ending coming. Just a great movie overall and I want it to win something. All of the nominees are very good movies though.
Predictions: I'm going Spotlight. And I won't be the least bit upset about it.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Nominees: The Martian, The Big Short, Room, Carol, Brooklyn
Hopes: I'm going Carol. Since it was snubbed in the best picture and director races, it should get something and the writing was beautiful. I can't speak to how well it was adapted from its source material, but the final product came out so wonderfully.
Predictions: The Big Short because I think everybody loved it. Plus it did a great job of simplifying a complicated subject matter that it was very important that everyone understood.

Visual Effects

Nominees: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Ex Machina, The Martian, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Hopes: How can you not go with Mad Max? All the amazing practical effects, the whole look is a big part of what made the movie so special.
Predictions: Mad Max all the way.

Sound Mixing

Nominees: Bridge of Spies, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Hopes: Sticking with Mad Max for all of the technical awards.
Predictions: The Revenant. No real reason.

Sound Editing

Nominees: The Martian, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Sicario
Hopes: Mad Max
Predictions: Mad Max. I don't know. Maybe it should be my prediction for both sound ones. So the past several years since I started keeping track, EVERY TIME there is ONE difference between the two sound categories. As if they are just trying to prove that they are different.

Live Action/Animated/Documentary Shorts

I'm just sitting this one out for now. Unless I happen to see them. I did see there was a Don Hertzfeldt one for animated, so let's just go with that one.

Best Song

Nominees: "Simple Song #3," "Til It Happens to You," "Manta Ray," "Earned It," "Writing's On the Wall" 
Hopes: As a longtime Antony & The Johnsons fan who didn't keep up and didn't even know she was now ANOHNI, I'm going to hope for this longshot to pull through. "Manta Ray."
Predictions: Gotta go Gaga, "Til It Happens to You." I just listened to all the songs and that is a powerful one. The kind that wins these kinds of things.

Original Score

Nominees: Bridge of Spies, Sicario, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, The Hateful Eight, Carol
Hopes: As I think about it some more, I think Carol had the most striking score.
Predictions: One of the two veterans probably. I'm going to say Ennio Morricone for The Hateful Eight because he is legendary.

Makeup & Hairstyling

Nominees: The Revenant, The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window, Mad Max: Fury Road
Hopes: As cool as Leo's beard was, Mad Max baby.
Predictions: Mad Max baby.

Foreign Language Film

Nominees: A War, Son of Saul, Embrace of the Serpent, Theeb, Mustang
Hopes: Since Mustang is the only one I saw, I'll go with that one. I saw it at the Denver Film Festival and it was a definite highlight. Just a great film. Of course, I'd have to see others to see if I am justified in this opinion!
Predictions: No idea. I think I heard Embrace of the Serpent was great, so I'll go with that one. Last minute edit: Son of Saul is that holocaust movie, it's totally going to win.

Film Editing

Nominees: The Reventant, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Big Short
Hopes: Sticking with Mad Max. I think I want it to just dominate! But the fact that it remained coherent for an entire feature-length car chase scene means it was edited super awesomely.
Predictions: The Big Short because editing had such a crucial role in this film. It was disjointed yet somehow coherent.

Documentary Feature

Nominees: Amy, The Look of Silence, Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom, Cartel Land, What Happened, Miss Simone?
Hopes: The Look of Silence. Just the audacity of this film. Just the human face it put on genocide. Just the restraint shown by the protagonist and filmmaker when confronting these monsters. The sadness. The needing to forgive, not the need of the perpetrators, but the need of the victims to be able to forgive these people. It was so powerful and left me with a lot to think about. Possibly even greater than its companion piece the (similarly nominated, didn't win) The Act of Killing.
Predictions: Amy all the way. Those music documentaries always win. I'm picking this over the Nina Simone one because it was just so heartbreaking and also a great commercial success.

Directing

Nominees: George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road, Adam McKay for The Big Short, Lenny Abrahamson for Room, Alexandro G. Inarritu for The Revenant, Tom McCarthy for Spotlight
Hopes: Listen, all of these movies were great in their own ways. But if we're talking director as an auteur, as the uncompromising visionary, I can't vote for anyone but George Miller. Mad Max was a singular vision if I've ever seen one.
Predictions: It could be anyone. I'm going with Tom McCarthy for Spotlight just because directing is often associated with working with actors and the actors in Spotlight all did such a terrific job.

Costume Design

Nominees: Carol, Cinderella, The Danish Girl, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant
Hopes: I kind of loved the outfits in Carol. I think it's because I am so into 50s fashion. I don't know. But Rooney Mara's clothing was pretty great.
Predictions: The Danish Girl just because. I never know with this costume stuff!

Production Design

Nominees: The Revenant, The Danish Girl, The Martian, Bridge of Spies, Mad Max: Fury Road
Hopes: Are you kidding? Mad Max was just one big exercise in production design!
Predictions: The Martian because hey, Mars!

Cinematography

Nominees: The Hateful Eight, Carol, The Revenant, Sicario, Mad Max: Fury Road
Hopes: Pretty hopeless at this point until he works on another huge Oscar contender prestige production, but can Roger Deakins please please please win for Sicario? Every time I see one of his films, it is abundantly clear that he is far and away the best DP in the business. All the cool tricks he comes up with in silhouette, camera movement, smoke/fog, etc.
Predictions: Robert Richardson for The Hateful Eight. Because it was pretty damn cool looking in 70mm. Colorado is a beautiful state!

Animated Feature

Nominees: Shaun the Sheep Movie, Anomalisa, Inside Out, Boy & The World, When Marnie Was There
Hopes: I don't really have hope for Anomalisa but I want it to win. I'm a Kaufman lifer. I know it's not going to win. And as my friend said, it's "lesser Kaufman." But even lesser Kaufman leaves you with a lot to think about and this was a really cool minor story about a short lived anomaly. Pretty beautiful in its simplicity with just a few tricks thrown in there that you could only do effectively with animation.
Predictions: Inside Out. And that's perfectly fine. One of the best Pixar movies yet, and that is really saying something. Pretty much a lock though.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Rachel McAdams for Spotlight, Rooney Mara for Carol, Jennifer Jason Leigh for The Hateful Eight, Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs, Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl
Hopes: Jennifer Jason Leigh! Big fan, and she was great. I'd also like to note however that Rooney Mara was so great in Carol and could have been considered the lead of that movie.
Predictions: I hear they are going crazy over Alicia Vikander, so let's say her. I didn't see The Danish Girl but she was great in Ex Machina this year!

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Sylvester Stallone for Creed, Tom Hardy for The Revenant, Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies, Mark Ruffalo for Spotlight, Christian Bale for The Big Short
Hopes: I liked Mark Rylance so much in Bridge of Spies. Such a great subtle performance that made such a likeable character, which was crucial (as my friend pointed out, the movie just wouldn't have worked if his character wasn't likeable).
Predictions: Hollywood loves a comeback story, so Sylvester Stallone it is! Creed is also the one nominee in this category that I didn't see.

Lead Actress

Nominees: Brie Larson for Room, Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years, Cate Blanchett for Carol, Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn, Jennifer Lawrence for Joy
Hopes: Man, this is one stacked field this year. I only saw three of them, but they were fantastic performances. But I think the most heartbreaking performance was by Brie Larson in Room. Even as kind of a support player to the child (that kid was amazing too!), she did such a beautiful job as someone just doing the best she can for her son under extremely horrendous circumstances.
Predictions: I was originally going to say Cate Blanchett (even though Rooney Mara probably had a stronger performance in that film), but I'm just going to put all my eggs in the Brie Larson room.

Lead Actor

Nominees: Bryan Cranston for Trumbo, Matt Damon for The Martian, Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant, Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs, Eddie Redmayne for The Danish Girl
Hopes: This field seems pretty weak by comparison. Everyone did their usual good work (just assuming with Cranston & Redmayne), so Leonardo DiCaprio going above and beyond kind of makes sense to me. He did pretty well.
Predictions: Leonardo DiCaprio and his grunting and limping. Duh.

Best Picture

Nominees: The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight
Hopes: I'm going to just rank them because I want to say something about each of them.
1. Mad Max: Fury Road. As I said before, this is the one. The fact that a silly action movie with badass guitar flamethrowers is even my top pick speaks to the astonishing feat that this film was. Wow.
2. Room. Not only was the acting phenomenal, it managed the incredible feat of making a movie about being stuck in a shed somewhat uplifting, it showed the perspective of a child growing up in that shed (the whole world as far as he knew), and it just made me cry.
3. Spotlight. Because of all the great performances and the portrayal of journalism...I don't know, it was just intense.
4. The Big Short. There is no good guy. It is an important film for people to see and understand. It is infuriating but necessary. And just enough funny.
5. Brooklyn. A very pleasant film and I didn't mention her in the acting category but Saoirse Ronan just carried the whole film. A good portrayal of immigrants that we all can relate to, because almost all of us in this country are descendents of immigrants. Look like you know where you're going.
6. The Martian. A pretty astonishing tale of survival. Matt Damon was so charismatic and brought so much to what would have been a pretty bleak movie. Cool science too!
7. The Revenant. A pretty astonishing tale of survival. What keeps you alive? I feel like I kind of hate on this movie more than I should. I just think the director is overrated and after finally seeing this movie that it was also kind of overrated. I found myself bored at times, maybe I just wasn't in the right space for it. Still, lots of great performances, some very intense action sequences, some great cinematography, a good package.
8. Bridge of Spies. I don't like putting this on the bottom because I liked it quite a bit. But all eight of these were quite good. I just felt like this was Steven Spielberg doing his thing, which is very competent (even expert) directing, and everyone doing a very competent job (even expert, in the case of Mark Rylance), and putting together a quite good movie. Just not the best picture of the year.
Prediction: The Revenant. It seems pretty unstoppable at this point. I'd be pleasantly surprised if one of the others wins though.

So I guess I'll see how happy/psychic I am this year! I don't have the best record with these things.


And finally, my general comment about the Academy Awards: There are always going to be snubs, horror will rarely if ever get any recognition, and there is a huge problem with the lack of diversity. Kubrick never won except for visual effects. Hitchcock never won. The best films out there are often completely unrecognized by critics and the academy alike. See Dope, It Follows, and Liza the Fox Fairy for some of my personal favorites of 2015 that received no nominations. Watch Tangerine (I didn't see it but it seems essential). And if Carol had been nominated for best picture it'd probably be at #3 on my list up there. Anyway, I'm saying all that to make a point. The Academy Awards are important to me in spite of all that. For one, they tend to be quite good movies and I always make a point to try to see as many as I can. It's my excuse to see more movies. And the nominated movies play at strip malls and the like. Which means more people than usual are seeing these artistic movies by artistic people. Sure, they could see them and more at art houses, and they should. But they don't. So this is a fairly reliable support system for smart cinema. Yes, they all have studio support pushing for them to get nominations, rather than being an organic thing, but the end product is still generally a victory for quality cinema.

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Oscar Hopes & Dreams 2014

Up until I think Thursday, I was thinking the Oscars were today. I just had the date set in my head and was going as fast as I could trying to see everything in time to have a valid-ish opinion come Oscar night. Then I found out I had another whole week! But I might as well post this now. I'd resigned myself to missing the shorts and some of the documentary and foreign film contenders but I might be able to fit those in this week. For now they will be kind of blank. I'm just going to go through these categories in order and say who I'd like to see win, whether they seem likely or not.

Best Picture:
  • I saw: All of them.
  • Top Pick:  I would love to see Her win because it was a beautiful thing and probably my favorite film of the year, saying so much about us as human beings and our reliance on detached "others" (writers, artists, computer programmers, whatever) to help us reach very human connections and the deepest feelings. But its chances are low. I'd also be absolutely tickled to see one of the other underdogs win, such as Nebraska or maybe Philomena. Not that those seemed particularly outstanding (more just lovely small stories, the type of movie I generally prefer), I just like to see that sort of thing recognized. 
  • Other Top Pick: Out of the movies with a fighting chance (American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, 12 Years A Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street maybe), I'm pulling for 12 Years A Slave. Not only because it's Very Important That We Americans Remember This Painful Part Of Our History, but because it's a hell of an epic story of a man and his journey home.
  • Other comments: I feel like there's a backlash against American Hustle coming in. I remember quite loving it when I saw it, but looking back at it I'm having kind of middling feelings toward it, thinking it was merely "good" and not really anything new for David O. Russell. He's kind of on a hot streak but in retrospect it seems like it'll not quite measure up to The Fighter or (hopefully) some of his future works. Captain Phillips was a good action film and I appreciated it not so much making the pirates out to be bad guys but people that have their own needs for survival in a world that has turned its back on them. Dallas Buyers Club was good but not as great as I was expecting (maybe my own fault, I was pretty tired when I watched it so I might have missed something). Gravity was wonderful and is probably my second place pick for movies-with-a-chance. The way it depicted loneliness and isolation without getting boring, that it was really a rollercoaster playing out in real time, it made the runtime just fly right by. Nebraska seems like the type of movie I would like to make someday. Philomena was very very touching. The Wolf of Wall Street reminded me of Goodfellas, just another great Scorsese picture and his best in quite some time.

Lead Actor:
  • I saw: All of them.
  • Top Pick: Again, I gotta give it to 12 Years A Slave. Chiwetel Ejiofor turned in one hell of a performance. There was a moment during that film that it just flipped in my mind that he is a leading man, that he should win the Oscar and go on to a very successful career in leading roles from now on. It was when he started singing. The strength of his voice offering hope but giving way to pain, written all over his face, all in one closeup shot.
  • Other comments: Bruce Dern was great in Nebraska and it'd be neat to see him win. Matthew McConaughey was brilliant as always and will probably take it. Those three are my top contenders and if it's not one of these three I will be quite puzzled.
Lead Actress:
  • I saw: All of them.
  • Top Pick: This is a really strong field here. I think the competition is tougher in the lead actress field than the lead actor field this year. Cate Blanchett's performance in Blue Jasmine is one of the greatest I've ever seen, the fragility and bitchiness of her character so perfectly portrayed.
  • Other comments: But damnit the rest were so great that there's a chance she won't win! I think Amy Adams is great (and she was great in American Hustle) but she just wasn't on the level of these other nominees. Another year maybe. Sandra Bullock carried Gravity nearly solo, which I don't think most could do. Judi Dench was heartbreakingly sweet in Philomena and probably made me cry more than anyone else in this field. Meryl Streep is always fabulous but she should give someone else a chance.
Supporting Actor:
  • I saw: All of them.
  • Top Pick: This is an odd assortment here. And a little weaker than usual. I'd probably give it to Jared Leto as the tragic transgendered character in Dallas Buyers Club even though that role just screams Oscar Bait already. He still gave a very nuanced performance that could have easily gone too far in one direction or another but he hit just the right notes.
  • Barkhad Abdi had the only other particularly deserving performance in my opinion in Captain Phillips. What I said earlier about the way it didn't take the easy way out in villainizing the pirates had a lot to do with him in his half-sympathetic portrayal. I am a big fan of Michael Fassbender (particularly when he's working with Steve McQueen) but I just didn't find enough nuance in his part in 12 Years A Slave.
Supporting Actress:
  • I saw: All of them.
  • Top Pick: Lupita Nyong'o for sure. The spirit of that character, so unbreakable despite her breakable physicality, so breakable was my heart!
  • Other Comments: Sally Hawkins was awesome too. Why does Jennifer Lawrence keep winning awards for American Hustle?? Love her (and rooted for her back when she was nominated for Winter's Bone) but she again just seems out of her league here (or at least the role didn't call for her to exercise her range as much as an Oscar role should). Julia Roberts was one of the saving factors of August: Osage County. June Squibb was absolutely delightful in Nebraska and I wouldn't mind seeing her win but I don't know what her chances are with such a comedic role.
Animated Feature:
  • I saw: None of them.
  • Top Pick: No idea. Let's just say The Wind Rises because it appears to be beautiful and I feel like the commercial ones always win this category.
  • Other Comments: none. I recorded The Croods so I could potentially watch that one before the awards. I haven't seen Despicable Me but I also recorded Despicable Me 2 if I feel like it...Oh and I'm sure Frozen will win.
Cinematography:
  • I saw: All except for The Grandmaster (but I did see pieces of the cinematography...).
  • Top Pick: Roger Deakins for Prisoners. Deakins is still the greatest DP working and he still gets robbed every year. He manages to keep getting nominated so it's not as though he's not recognized at all. Watching Prisoners just exemplified how upper echelon his stuff is. He seems to be working on more commercial action movies lately, I wonder if he'd have a better chance if he got back with the Coen Brothers...not that he ever got the win for any of his brilliant work for them in the past. 
  • Other Comments:  Gravity might win, it is pretty astonishingly beautiful. It'd be cruel but maybe Bruno Delbonnel will win for Inside Llewyn Davis (which went pretty much unrecognized otherwise in the nominations), it was a great looking film. I don't know if Phedon Papamichel should win for Nebraska; it seems like it got nominated because it's a well photographed black and white film which is unique. But it ain't no Manhattan...
Production Design:
  • I saw: All except for The Great Gatsby.
  • Top Pick: We're starting to get into fields that I'm less interested in but I'll say Her for two reasons: It took place in a future not too far away and was a very believable portrayal of that, with varying degrees of subtlety in design. Or if not a future, I originally viewed it as an alternate present time. Some future technology not too different from our own but fashion of the 70s or 80s or something. Just a slightly different version of our universe that makes the whole thing feel timeless. Oh yeah, the other reason. Just that I want Her to win pretty much everything it's nominated for because it's not nominated for a lot.
  • Other Comments: All the nominees are so different from each other that it's hard to say which direction the voters will go. Probably one that will go to the same movie as what wins best picture (American Hustle or 12 Years A Slave) just to be another in its overall number of wins.
Costume Design:
  • I saw: Only American Hustle and 12 Years A Slave.
  • Top Pick: You know, whatever. Probably American Hustle.There were some outrageous outfits in that one.
  • Other Comments: None.
Directing:
  • I saw: All of them.
  • Top Pick: What no Spike Jonze nomination?? Steve McQueen then. Because of what I said above for best picture. Seriously, how is best director different from best picture?
  • Other Comments: See other comments from best picture nominees. I respect all of these directors greatly. It looks like there's never been a black best director winner which is odd (Spike Lee's never won??), so I think it's time. Otherwise Alfonso Cuaron would be a good choice for Gravity. It'd be cool to see him win.
Documentary Feature:
  • I saw: All of them.
  • Top Pick: The Act of Killing is kind of a no-brainer for this one. It's just so intense and fearless and an interesting study of these unrepentant monsters. A must-see.
  • Other Comments: Cutie and the Boxer was nice to watch after all the other docs about turbulence and war and such, just an interesting look at two very different artists in their art, personalities, and suffering. Dirty Wars was a good expose of something awful that is going on, it just got kind of annoying that the filmmaker felt the need to insert himself into it so much. It was amazing seeing the Egyptian revolution from the inside with The Square. I guess the favorite to win is 20 Feet From Stardom. I did enjoy it (another lighter hearted joy and I love me some Merry Clayton) but c'mon, The Act of Killing was life changing.
Documentary Short:
  • I saw: All of them.
  • Top Pick: Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall was another no-brainer for me. A story of redemption, showing how caring and loving people doing life sentences for murder and kidnapping can be, and then the devastating scenes of Pvt. Hall's last moments with his son, it just stuck with me in a way that I don't think I can ever forget.
  • Other Comments: CaveDigger was cute but didn't seem to be on the same level as the rest. But it was also the only lighthearted movie of the bunch, so good on it for not being depressing! Facing Fear was another story of redemption and forgiveness that stuffed a whole lot into its short running time. And an astonishing story that I wouldn't believe would really happen, but it did. Karama Has No Walls was the most intense movie of the program and probably of my whole season of watching Oscar movies. Just absolutely devastating, it did not hold back, those cameras were right there in the revolution and in the resulting suffering. Those children. They're just children! The Lady In Number 6: Music Saved My Life had the most wonderful woman as a subject and it really just brought a different perspective to many things for me; I couldn't believe what I was hearing these women say. I would not mind seeing this one win either. 
Film Editing:
  • I saw: All of them.
  • Top Pick: I probably have to give it to Captain Phillips. The pacing just made it so intense. 
  • Other Comments: Normally I really notice and like how David O Russell movies are paced/cut, but I didn't really notice much of that in American Hustle. Most of these nominees are just good movies but I don't remember the editing being anything unique...
Foreign Language Film:
  • I saw: Everything but The Missing Picture and Omar.
  • Top Pick: Probably The Great Beauty. It was the intellectual art film of the three nominees I saw. Just so beautifully constructed and shot, written, just one of those pictures, you know? How it showed this great party scene but really made you feel the isolation of everyone in attendance even as they took part in debauchery and ridiculousness...the isolation of everyone! In search of something...
  • Other Comments: Couldn't really find any means of seeing The Missing Picture or Omar. But The Broken Circle Breakdown was one of the saddest movies I have ever seen. It plays like one of the great old country songs. Just the way these two very opposite people deal with a shared tragedy is so well done, and this film had me bawling repeatedly. Great music too! The Hunt was an extraordinary picture about some very unfortunate circumstances that lead to great suffering by one person at the hands of many without having any actual villains...everyone's behavior was based on compassion and reason and that's why it hurt so much!
Makeup & Hairstyling
  • I saw: Only Dallas Buyers Club.
  • Top Pick: I'll just say Dallas Buyers Club for Jared Leto.
  • Other Comments: I don't want a Jackass movie to win an Oscar. Does that make me stuffy and out of touch? And is there anything great about the makeup and hairstyling in The Lone Ranger aside from making Johnny Depp look ridiculous?
Music (Original score): 
  • I saw: Gravity, Her, and Philomena
  • Top Pick: Wouldn't it be cool to see Owen Pallett & Arcade Fire win an Oscar for Her?
  • Other Comments: None.
Music (Original Song):
  • I saw: Her
  • Top Pick: Karen O & Spike Jonze for "The Moon Song" even though it's such a simple song! Yes please!
  • Other Comments: I listened to all of these songs. The U2 one just sounds like U2, which is very boring to me. The one from Frozen will probably win (if U2 doesn't win because people love some U2 for some reason) because it's one of those singer showcase songs. I wouldn't mind Pharrell winning because that song is catchy. It'd be my second choice.
Animated Short:
  • I saw: None...
  • Top Pick: Can't fairly say.
  • Other Comments: Looks like I won't catch these...drat! They're usually so good!
Live Action Short:
  • I saw: None...
  • Top Pick: Can't fairly say.
  • Other Comments: I missed out.
Sound Editing:
  • I saw: All except All is Lost and Lone Survivor
  • Top Pick: Captain Phillips I guess?.
  • Other Comments: Someone with long hair. I recorded All is Lost but I don't know if I'll stress myself trying to watch before Sunday just for this nomination.
Sound Mixing:
  • I saw: All except Lone Survivor
  • Top Pick: Inside Llewyn Davis please! So it can win something! Also there was some skillful sound mixing, such as the scene with the guy eating cereal.
  • Other Comments: I still don't get how sound mixing isn't a part of sound editing. It kind of exemplifies that in the fact that the nominees are almost always the same movies with one difference.
Visual Effects:
  • I saw: All except The Lone Ranger.
  • Top Pick: Gravity. The depiction of space was so lifelike, it took it to a new level. The new standard, like 2001 way back when (Kubrick's only ever Oscar win!).
  • Other Comments: Iron Man 3 had decent effects as usual, the others were pretty standard fare from what I can tell. Why wasn't Pacific Rim nominated though? An easy second place!
Writing (Adapted Screenplay):
  • I saw: All of them.
  • Top Pick: Before Midnight. I'm not sure how this is "adapted" though. But it's just so real and so raw in its depiction of these same characters and where they would be at this point.
  • Other Comments: Lots of strong contenders here. For me, I'm generally most interested in these writing categories because the nominees tend to be my favorite films of the year as opposed to the best picture nominees. Lots of overlap this year though.
Writing (Original Screenplay):
  • I saw: All of them.
  • Top PickHer. It might even have a chance in this category! 
  • Other Comments: Again, a strong pool. I wonder if the recent hubbub about Woody Allen killed his chances here. We'll see.

And there you have it. We'll see how it shakes out very soon.

Sunday, February 24, 2013

pre-Oscar hopes & predictions 2013

Greetings!

Now that I've seen everything except the following, I have stuff to say before the Oscars start tonight. Interesting!

Disclaimer: I did not see the following:

  • The Impossible (was not interested in a story about "oh wow, I didn't realize the tsunamis also affected wealthy vacationing Americans!")
  • The Sessions
  • All the non-Wreck-It Ralph animated features.
  • Mirror Mirror & Snow White and the Huntsman (because...why on earth would I care?)
  • The Gatekeepers (the only documentary feature that was not available in nearby theaters/netflix)
  • All the documentary shorts (if I had about one more day I would have gone to see them)
  • All the foreign films besides Amour (I wish I'd had the chance!)
  • Hitchcock
  • Chasing Ice
So I cannot say anything about those movies.


Best Picture
None of the 10 features didn't really seem like a "best picture" to me. Maybe if The Master were nominated...Anyway, my official hope is Beasts of the Southern Wild (mostly because I want to see that tiny indie film beat out all those big budget ones) with a second place hope of Amour. My official guess is Lincoln because the Academy loves stuff like that.

Lead Actor
Kind of a lock for Daniel Day-Lewis. He does deserve it. He's both my hope and prediction?

Lead Actress
I would be so happy if French New Wave icon Emmanuel Riva were to win. And her performance was pretty incredible. I equate it kind of to Ellen Barkin from Requiem For A Dream, being a dynamite performance from an older woman that will likely go unrecognized. Prediction is Jessica Chastain, who was also quite good.

Supporting Actor
De Niro because he was amazing in Silver Linings Playbook. Both.

Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway absolutely deserves it. I'd be surprised if anyone else won. Maybe Sally Field...

Animated Feature
I didn't even see Tim Burton's movie! But it'd be neat if it won, assuming it's good?

Cinematography
Of course I'm pulling for Roger Deakins, the Susan Lucci of cinematographers. It'll probably be the Django dude or the Life of Pi dude.

Production Design
Anna Karenina was actually really cool in its style, partially like a play. Kind of like a musical that's not a musical. So I'll hope for that, expecting Life of Pi to win.

Costume Design
I don't care too much but I guess Anna Karenina again for both?

Directing
Would love to see Michael Haneke win. But Spielberg seems likely.

Documentary Feature
I was ready to pull for Searching For Sugar Man but then I saw 5 Broken Cameras. Which was just astonishing. It'd make me so happy if that one won. But prediction will probably be Sugar Man.

Editing
The pacing of Silver Linings Playbook was really cool, the editing was rhythmic. I doubt that will be recognized, as voters probably prefer the suspenseful editing of Argo. Which would be ok too.

Make-Up & Hair
Eh? Hobbit I guess?

Music Score
I don't usually pay attention to scores. And when I do find myself loving them, half the time they're just pre-existing classical compositions. Or Johnny Greenwood, who wasn't even nominated (again!). So...hope Skyfall guess Argo? ??

Original Song
Adele!

Animated Short
I really loved Head Over Heels. Kind of guessing Paperman though.

Live Action Short
They were all very good. I am hoping for Death of a Shadow but think it'll probably be Asad. Which is my second hope anyway.

Sound Editing/Mixing
What is the difference really??? Anyway, gonna "hope" for Django & Les Mis, predicting Argo for both. But it's all pretty whatever, whatever?

Visual Effects
I think Life of Pi deserves this one. If nothing else, the film looked really cool.

Writing adapted
Go Beasts! Expecting Argo.

Writing original
Go Wes Anderson! Expecting Zero Dark Thirty though.


I guess that's it. Sorry for the boring post. I'll post again afterward to let you know how happy/angry I am.

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Obligatory Third Post About The Oscars

I promised it, although now I'm not sure why. There's not much left to say. I will say that Hugo deserved the wins it got. Nothing upset/surprised me too much. Glad some Colorado filmmakers won best documentary short. The Artist is now officially "overrated" but I wish it no ill will. Good for it. Tree of Life will end up being one of those movies that, years down the line, people will say "really? Tree of Life won no awards?" or maybe not. I like to think it will be recognized as 2001: A Space Odyssey is now. But who knows.

I'm glad it's time to move on. It reminds me of the end of the year when I obsess about putting together my list of best albums and once I've done that I can finally listen to other stuff. I can now watch whatever the hell movies I feel like. Not that any of them were a chore (I should have seen The Descendants earlier, that's for sure!). I just feel liberated.

That is all. Thanks for playing.

Saturday, February 25, 2012

Updated Oscar related things and thoughts!

I said I would do this so here it is. Now that I've seen most of the movies nominated for most things, here are some final thoughts about what I would like to see happen tomorrow on the TV screen which is oh so important.

Best Picture: Still Tree of Life, duh. But I can see The Artist taking everything for nothing more than nostalgic purposes. I didn't dislike The Artist and wish it no ill will, but it was simply "good."

Lead Actor: George Clooney will probably win and I now think he should. He was marvelous. I always think Clooney is overrated but I quite liked his performance here.

Lead Actress: Hopin' for Michelle Williams, who channeled the simple charm of Marilyn Monroe. The movie wasn't as good as I had hoped but the acting was great, particularly Ms. Williams. (Prediction is Glenn Close, just seeing the trailer I could tell that that's the type of role that wins Oscars)

Supporting Actor: Kenneth Branagh was also brilliant in My Week With Marilyn. So go him. I don't know who to predict so I decided Max Von Sydow despite the movie being (presumably) terrible. Mostly as a way to finally recognize his brilliance.

Supporting Actress: No interest in The Help but I can see someone from that movie winning. I half-heartedly endorse Bérénice Bejo from The Artist for her charm level, but none of these nominees particularly impressed me this year. Where's Carey Mulligan or Charlotte Gainsbourg?

Animated Feature: I saw none of these. I will blindly hope for A Cat In Paris because I imagine it is a lot of fun, and I will blindly predict Rango. What are we to do without a Pixar nominee?

Cinematography: I was surprised Moneyball wasn't nominated although Wally Pfister got recognized for his work in Inception. But that was probably my second favorite cinematography after Tree of Life. Predict The Artist because it's gonna take home a lot. Even though the lighting had lots of the faults of 40s (and earlier) black and white cinema with multiple shadows always on display. But maybe that was purposeful?

Directing: See above. Predict The Artist but Tree of Life really should take this one.

Editing: Hugo should win, again expecting The Artist...

Song: Go Bret McKenzie!

Adapted Screenplay: I believe The Descendants will and should win. Wonderful story, wonderful dialog, just well told. Moneyball's a distant second.

Original Screenplay: Predicting Midnight in Paris. I didn't see A Separation, but I'm going to hope for that one anyway. None of the nominees I saw impressed me all that much this year.

I sadly didn't see any documentaries, shorts, or the nominated foreign films this year. Other than seeing Time Freak randomly at a film festival. I can hope for Time Freak, but that's not really a fair way to judge it.


I will try to make my final entry about the oscars less list-y and more paragraphy. See you after that!


Oh, one final note. Alfred Hitchcock never won an oscar. Stanley Kubrick only won once for visual effects. The best movies are often not even nominated. Even with 10 nominations. So see Shame, Melancholia, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Drive, The Skin I Live In, King of Devil's Island, and many more. fyi.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Oscars 2012 - Initial Thoughts on the Nominations

I will follow up once I've seen more and again after the ceremony. Follow along at home and comment and make your own predictions! Here's where they're posted.

Best Picture:
TREE OF LIFE TREE OF LIFE TREE OF LIFE. Unquestionably the best film of the year. I loved Hugo and I still have to see the others, but hands down, man!

Lead Actor:
I really need to see more films, I haven't seen any of these! But based on snippets and such, it appears that George Clooney was great in The Descendants...But really? No Michael Fassbender?

Lead Actress:
No Elizabeth Olsen? No Carey Mulligan? They will both get their due someday if they keep up the good work. I think Meryl Streep just has a permanent spot on the nominee list. I will be pullin' for Glenn Close, although I need to see more of these.

Supporting Actor:
I have no comment at this time, although I'm a little disappointed in the absence of Paul Giamatti & Philip Seymour Hoffman...but those two guys do get their share of credit so it's not a huge deal. Would have liked to see John C Reilly for Cedar Rapids, even though it seemed like such a joke role he did a great job fusing comedy with drama in this performance and what he still hasn't won an Oscar? Just because he mostly does comedy doesn't mean he's not one of the best actors working today...Or Carnage or We Need To Talk About Kevin (but I haven't seen those ones).

Supporting Actor:
Or maybe this is where Carey Mulligan should have been. Still not there though. Let's see. The Help just needs to shuuuut up. Melissa McCarthy was very funny in Bridesmaids but is that enough for an Oscar?

Animated Feature:
Seen none of these. What do you think Pixar is thinking now? They lost their perma-spot!

Cinematography:
TREEEEEE OF LIFFFFE. Disappointed to see no Roger Deakins this year. When will he be properly recognized? But it looks like the only movie he would have been possibly nominated for this year was In Time, so it makes sense that he wasn't on the list. Next year though. If nothing else, he's doing a Bond movie so it will probably look awesome...

Art Direction:
Hugo!

Costume:
Whatever...

Directing:
Great field of talent here but obviously I'm going to pull for Malick.

Not much else to say about the other categories. Except "only two songs?"

Oh wait, Writing is there at the bottom:
Adapted Screenplay:
Need to see more of these before I can say anything. Betting on The Descendants though, were I a betting man.

Original Screenplay:
I'm sick of saying nothing about The Artist, I really need to go see that one. Bridesmaids would be a good one to win though.


Neglected:
obviously I need to see more movies in general, but come on!
-The Skin I Live In
-Le Havre
-13 Assassins
-John C Reilly
-The King of Devil's Island
-Martha Marcy May Marlene
-Melancholia
-Shame

Sunday, February 24, 2008

thank god for teen pregnancy!

oscar review.  well, thoughts.  now that it's over.

according to statistics and my last post, i am:
7/19 or 37% happy
10/19 or 53% psychic.

some i didn't predict.

notes:
*why did they wrap up in such a hurry at 9:48ish (mountain time)? didn't they have until 10?

*thing about best director.  i guess i was right, but maybe PTA will still win one someday.  but if he didn't for TWBB, it seems like either he'll win for a lesser film just to make up for this snub, or he'll actually make another amazing film someday.  but did you notice for the two oscars that movie DID get, both recipients specifically said "this is for Paul?"  

*those two big movies, There Will Be Blood and No Country For Old Men (this isn't about the Oscars, just an observation), did you notice they didn't have the directors' signature actors? TWBB didn't have Philip Seymour Hoffman, who's been in his last bunch of films, and NCFOM didn't have Steve Buscemi.  weird.

*those songs from Enchanted kinda sucked.  I'm glad none of them won.

*i like Jon Stewart.

*Michael Clayton got screwed!  it was up for so many! maybe that's why Tilda Swinton actually beat the highly expected Cate Blanchett?

*i guess 53% isn't a GREAT track record, but I'm still surprised/impressed with myself for achieving that.  since there were 4 nominees in most categories.  i got the first 5 or so of the night correct.  but then again, lots of my correct guesses were totally stabs in the dark for movies i'd never seen.

*i need to start making predictions for how many times Jack Nicholson will be addressed directly on any given oscar night.

silly oscars

NOTE: Wow, I did pretty awesome with these predictions.  I have now annotated my responses.

they are on tonight.  hardly news i guess.  you knew that.  just figured i'd make my predictions.  and give my opinions even though i already did that awhile ago.  

i'll just go in the same order as the official oscar site, and then say who i "hope" wins and who i "predict" will win.  but i have a pretty bad track record with these things.  so like, don't enter a pool with these answers unless that's actually what you think.  not that you would.  just a disclaimer.  i will probably be wrong a lot.

Actor in a lead role
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones, In The Valley Of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
HOPE: Daniel Day-Lewis - HOORAY!
PREDICT: Daniel Day-Lewis - CORRECT!
not just because I've only seen TWBB and ST, but also because his performance was epic.

Actor in a support role
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James...
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into The Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
HOPE: Javier Bardem - HOORAY!
PREDICT: Javier Bardem - CORRECT!
ok, PSH is my favorite actor, and I never saw CWW.  But Bardem was so amazing in that movie.

Actress in a lead role
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno
HOPE: Laura Linney - AWW.
PREDICT: Marion Cotillard - CORRECT!
Ellen Page is too young to win.  She will one year though.  And people thought the character wasn't "believable," but I disagree--Juno was a lot like the girls I hung out with in high school.  I want Laura Linney to win, but those little movies I like that nobody else sees never seem to win.  My prediction is a total stab in the dark because I haven't seen any of those three movies.

Actress in a support role
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
HOPE: Cate Blanchett - AWW.
PREDICT: Cate Blanchett - WRONG!
Sadly, I've only seen I'm Not There.  But I feel confident in my choice because not only did she succeed in making me get beyond "OMG a woman's playing Bob Dylan!" but because her character was my FAVORITE portrayal in that movie.  Man, I really should've seen Michael Clayton.  It'll probably win something.

Animated Feature Film
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf's Up
HOPE: Persepolis - AWW.
PREDICT: Ratatouille - CORRECT!
I haven't seen any of these, but I will be super surprised if Surf's Up wins.  It seems like it was just nominated so it wouldn't just be between 2 movies.  Anyway, Ratatouille had like a 99% or something on Rotten Tomatoes so everybody loves it.

Art Direction
American Gangster
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
HOPE: Sweeney Todd - HOORAY!
PREDICT: American Gangster - WRONG.
Just seems like something AG can win, since it should win something.  Shot in the dark though.

Cinematography
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
HOPE: There Will Be Blood - HOORAY!
PREDICT: Atonement - WRONG.
the only thing that didn't impress me about No Country was the cinematography.  Also, it seems like the academy is all about shit like Atonement so it will probably win.  I shouldn't call it shit; I've never seen it, but I can imagine what the cinematography would be like.  Not shit, just soft and pretty.  But not really exciting to me in the circumstances.

Costume Design
Across the Universe
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
La Vie en Rose
Sweeney Todd
HOPE: Sweeney Todd - WRONG.
PREDICT: Elizabeth: The Golden Age - CORRECT!
or Atonement.  I guess Elizabeth is kinda a secondary "hope" for me.  I just get so bored with costume design in these period pieces.  But since they always win, I just kinda hope it goes to Elizabeth.  I dunno, I should actually look at the clothes in stills from the movies if I want to be less biased.

Directing
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
HOPE: There Will Be Blood - WRONG.
PREDICT: No Country For Old Men - CORRECT!
I consider PTA perhaps the best director working right now.  Or at least he's up there.  People say he borrows/steals from Kubrick (and others), but I see it more as an employment of what he finds successful.  So I do consider him a great, great director.  And There Will Be Blood is perhaps his greatest effort yet.  But since Kubrick, Hitchcock, and Altman all never won oscars for directing, I can see him ending up in that field.  Plus, the Coen brothers also deserve to win.  And I just have a feeling they might.

Documentary Feature
No End In Sight
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance
HOPE: not Sicko - HOORAY!
PREDICT: not Sicko - CORRECT-ISH!
I haven't seen any of these.  But Michael Moore has already won, and while I mostly agree with his politics, it's hard to consider his movies documentaries.  

Documentary Short
Freeheld
La Corona
Salim Baba
Sari's Mother
HOPE: ?
PREDICT: ?
I wish I'd gone to some of those shows where you see all the nominated shorts in whatever given category.  That makes these categories more interesting, having seen all of the nominees, instead of none.  That said, I'll make my prediction while watching the show, after seeing the little clips they play.

Film Editing
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
HOPE: No Country for Old Men - AWW.
PREDICT: Into the Wild - WRONG.
Just seems like Into the Wild will win SOMETHING so probably this.  Not that I've seen it or its editing.  

Foreign language film
Beaufort
The Counterfeiters
Katyn
Mongol
12
HOPE: ?
PREDICT: ?
How shameful! I haven't seen any of these!  Although with foreign films, I usually prefer the ones that don't get nominations.

Makeup
La Vie En Rose
Norbit
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
HOPE: not Norbit - HOORAY!
PREDICT: La Vie En Rose - CORRECT!
Seriously, if Norbit wins an Oscar, I will be upset.

Music (score)
Atonement
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
3:10 To Yuma
WISH: There Will Be Blood - SIGH.
PREDICT: 3:10 To Yuma  - WRONG.
Again, I just kinda have to guess.  But it totally should've been TWBB.

Music (song)
Once "Falling Slowly" by Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova
Enchanted "Happy Working Song" by Alan Menken & Stephen Schwartz
August Rush "Raise It Up" by Jamal Joseph, Charles Mack & Tevin Thomas
Enchanted "So Close" by Alan Menken & Stephen Schwartz
Enchanted "That's How You Know" by Alan Menken & Stephen Schwartz
HOPE: ?
PREDICT: something from Enchanted - THANK GOD I WAS WRONG.
It's just simple statistics.

Best Picture
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
HOPE: There Will Be Blood - AWW.
PREDICT: There Will Be Blood - WRONG.
I just feel like TWBB might kinda get snubbed most of the night, but then will win best picture because after all, it was in fact the best picture of the year.

(skipping short animation & live action because this is getting long and it'll just be a repeat of what I wrote about short documentary)

Sound Editing
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country For Old Men
Ratatouille
There Will Be Blood
Transformers
HOPE: There Will Be Blood - AWW.
PREDICT: The Bourne Ultimatum - CORRECT!
seriously, did you notice the sound during the oil fire scene?  Brilliant.

Sound Mixing
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country For Old Men
Ratatouille
3:10 to Yuma
Transformers
HOPE: 3:10 to Yuma - AWW.
PREDICT: Ratatouille - WRONG.
No idea.  The best sound mixing doesn't really draw attention to itself.  So maybe even No Country.  I just don't remember really noticing the mixing at all, in a good way or bad.

Visual Effects
The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Transformers
HOPE: Transformers - AWW.
PREDICT: The Golden Compass - CORRECT!
I'm not big on visual effects.

Writing: Adapted Screenplay
Atonement
Away From Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
HOPE: No Country For Old Men - HOORAY!
PREDICT: No Country For Old Men - CORRECT!
That movie was complicated.  But it all made sense.  Well, eventually.  After thinking about it for awhile.

Writing: Original Screenplay
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages
HOPE: The Savages - AWW. 
PREDICT: Michael Clayton - WRONG.  MAN THIS MOVIE GOT PRETTY HOSED.


and that's it.  We'll see how way off I was.  When watching tonight, just remember.  The Oscars, while not as ridiculous as the Grammys, have a history of snubbing some of the greatest films ever made.  So like, don't get too upset about it.  

I just wish Before The Devil Knows You're Dead was up for SOMETHING.  But that's not how it works, is it?

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

oscar nominations

Oscar nominations are out, and as usual, I haven't seen most of the movies.  But in some cases, this assures that they'll be in theaters for awhile now, probably even the big megaplexes.  The one good thing about those places is that matinees are actually decent prices.  I saw There Will Be Blood yesterday at one of those and it was $5.50.

You can see all the nominees here.  And my thoughts are here:

*what? no nominations for Before The Devil Knows You're Dead?  Now, I haven't seen the movie so I can't really make a good argument, but I've heard that Sidney Lumet is back in top form and I've heard that everything about it is amazing.  Whatever.  I guess it just means I better see it SOON, before it's gone from theaters because it got NO nominations.

*Is Daniel Day-Lewis not a shoe-in for actor in a lead role?  That performance was unbelievable.  Like...DeNiro in Taxi Driver unbelievable.  

*my one complaint about There Will Be Blood: Paul Dano did not look like he'd aged 20 years.  I'm sorry, but he looked like a teenage priest throughout the whole movie.

*I really need to see No Country For Old Men.

*And Charlie Wilson's War.  If that's the role that got Philip Seymour-Hoffman his nomination this year, it is one I must see.

*YAY for Laura Linney getting a nod for her role in The Savages.  She was amazing in that film.  I doubt she will win (I hope she does though!), but it's still good that she's recognized.  I'd say she got robbed in 2001 for You Can Count On Me because Julia Roberts won, but in 2001 Ellen Burstyn was the one that got robbed (for Requiem For A Dream).

*Too much Juno love.  Not that I've even seen it.  But now I feel like there's no way I will like it when I finally do.  I'm sure it's a fine, fine picture, and the cast is awesome, but it's like the new Garden State.  Which I do like, but that was before I got so jaded about over hyped movies.  

*I hope Cate Blanchett wins Actress in a Supporting Role for I'm Not There, and not just because that's the only movie listed that I've seen, but because she was my favorite part about that movie.  Well, that and David Cross, of course (where's his nomination?!)

*How come the site lists lead actor first, then supporting actor, and THEN lead actress?  I call BS.

*I hope Persepolis gets best animated feature.  An artsy film is totally "due" to win that category again.  Only once before has that happened.  Usually it's a disney/pixar/etc movie that wins that category, and I guess Ratatouille will win this.  But to be fair, I haven't seen any of the nominations.  Maybe Ratatouille is legitimately a better film.  

*I think it's about time Paul Thomas Anderson won best director.  Not that that category means anything (Kubrick never won it, neither did Hitchcock, Robert Altman only ever got an honorary award), but I consider PTA the greatest "new" director we have (meaning not counting the old people that are still alive and have built great big bodies of work).  

*If Norbit wins an oscar, even for best makeup, I will be upset.

*I wish Jonny Greenwood was eligible to win for best score.  He really brought the already amazing There Will Be Blood to even greater heights.

If anybody reads this I'd like to see some comments!