NOTE: Wow, I did pretty awesome with these predictions. I have now annotated my responses.
i'll just go in the same order as the official oscar site, and then say who i "hope" wins and who i "predict" will win. but i have a pretty bad track record with these things. so like, don't enter a pool with these answers unless that's actually what you think. not that you would. just a disclaimer. i will probably be wrong a lot.
Actor in a lead role
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones, In The Valley Of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
HOPE: Daniel Day-Lewis - HOORAY!
PREDICT: Daniel Day-Lewis - CORRECT!
not just because I've only seen TWBB and ST, but also because his performance was epic.
Actor in a support role
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James...
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into The Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
HOPE: Javier Bardem - HOORAY!
PREDICT: Javier Bardem - CORRECT!
ok, PSH is my favorite actor, and I never saw CWW. But Bardem was so amazing in that movie.
Actress in a lead role
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno
HOPE: Laura Linney - AWW.
PREDICT: Marion Cotillard - CORRECT!
Ellen Page is too young to win. She will one year though. And people thought the character wasn't "believable," but I disagree--Juno was a lot like the girls I hung out with in high school. I want Laura Linney to win, but those little movies I like that nobody else sees never seem to win. My prediction is a total stab in the dark because I haven't seen any of those three movies.
Actress in a support role
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
HOPE: Cate Blanchett - AWW.
PREDICT: Cate Blanchett - WRONG!
Sadly, I've only seen I'm Not There. But I feel confident in my choice because not only did she succeed in making me get beyond "OMG a woman's playing Bob Dylan!" but because her character was my FAVORITE portrayal in that movie. Man, I really should've seen Michael Clayton. It'll probably win something.
Animated Feature Film
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf's Up
HOPE: Persepolis - AWW.
PREDICT: Ratatouille - CORRECT!
I haven't seen any of these, but I will be super surprised if Surf's Up wins. It seems like it was just nominated so it wouldn't just be between 2 movies. Anyway, Ratatouille had like a 99% or something on Rotten Tomatoes so everybody loves it.
Art Direction
American Gangster
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
HOPE: Sweeney Todd - HOORAY!
PREDICT: American Gangster - WRONG.
Just seems like something AG can win, since it should win something. Shot in the dark though.
Cinematography
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
HOPE: There Will Be Blood - HOORAY!
PREDICT: Atonement - WRONG.
the only thing that didn't impress me about No Country was the cinematography. Also, it seems like the academy is all about shit like Atonement so it will probably win. I shouldn't call it shit; I've never seen it, but I can imagine what the cinematography would be like. Not shit, just soft and pretty. But not really exciting to me in the circumstances.
Costume Design
Across the Universe
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
La Vie en Rose
Sweeney Todd
HOPE: Sweeney Todd - WRONG.
PREDICT: Elizabeth: The Golden Age - CORRECT!
or Atonement. I guess Elizabeth is kinda a secondary "hope" for me. I just get so bored with costume design in these period pieces. But since they always win, I just kinda hope it goes to Elizabeth. I dunno, I should actually look at the clothes in stills from the movies if I want to be less biased.
Directing
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
HOPE: There Will Be Blood - WRONG.
PREDICT: No Country For Old Men - CORRECT!
I consider PTA perhaps the best director working right now. Or at least he's up there. People say he borrows/steals from Kubrick (and others), but I see it more as an employment of what he finds successful. So I do consider him a great, great director. And There Will Be Blood is perhaps his greatest effort yet. But since Kubrick, Hitchcock, and Altman all never won oscars for directing, I can see him ending up in that field. Plus, the Coen brothers also deserve to win. And I just have a feeling they might.
Documentary Feature
No End In Sight
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance
HOPE: not Sicko - HOORAY!
PREDICT: not Sicko - CORRECT-ISH!
I haven't seen any of these. But Michael Moore has already won, and while I mostly agree with his politics, it's hard to consider his movies documentaries.
Documentary Short
Freeheld
La Corona
Salim Baba
Sari's Mother
HOPE: ?
PREDICT: ?
I wish I'd gone to some of those shows where you see all the nominated shorts in whatever given category. That makes these categories more interesting, having seen all of the nominees, instead of none. That said, I'll make my prediction while watching the show, after seeing the little clips they play.
Film Editing
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
HOPE: No Country for Old Men - AWW.
PREDICT: Into the Wild - WRONG.
Just seems like Into the Wild will win SOMETHING so probably this. Not that I've seen it or its editing.
Foreign language film
Beaufort
The Counterfeiters
Katyn
Mongol
12
HOPE: ?
PREDICT: ?
How shameful! I haven't seen any of these! Although with foreign films, I usually prefer the ones that don't get nominations.
Makeup
La Vie En Rose
Norbit
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
HOPE: not Norbit - HOORAY!
PREDICT: La Vie En Rose - CORRECT!
Seriously, if Norbit wins an Oscar, I will be upset.
Music (score)
Atonement
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
3:10 To Yuma
WISH: There Will Be Blood - SIGH.
PREDICT: 3:10 To Yuma - WRONG.
Again, I just kinda have to guess. But it totally should've been TWBB.
Music (song)
Once "Falling Slowly" by Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova
Enchanted "Happy Working Song" by Alan Menken & Stephen Schwartz
August Rush "Raise It Up" by Jamal Joseph, Charles Mack & Tevin Thomas
Enchanted "So Close" by Alan Menken & Stephen Schwartz
Enchanted "That's How You Know" by Alan Menken & Stephen Schwartz
HOPE: ?
PREDICT: something from Enchanted - THANK GOD I WAS WRONG.
It's just simple statistics.
Best Picture
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
HOPE: There Will Be Blood - AWW.
PREDICT: There Will Be Blood - WRONG.
I just feel like TWBB might kinda get snubbed most of the night, but then will win best picture because after all, it was in fact the best picture of the year.
(skipping short animation & live action because this is getting long and it'll just be a repeat of what I wrote about short documentary)
Sound Editing
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country For Old Men
Ratatouille
There Will Be Blood
Transformers
HOPE: There Will Be Blood - AWW.
PREDICT: The Bourne Ultimatum - CORRECT!
seriously, did you notice the sound during the oil fire scene? Brilliant.
Sound Mixing
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country For Old Men
Ratatouille
3:10 to Yuma
Transformers
HOPE: 3:10 to Yuma - AWW.
PREDICT: Ratatouille - WRONG.
No idea. The best sound mixing doesn't really draw attention to itself. So maybe even No Country. I just don't remember really noticing the mixing at all, in a good way or bad.
Visual Effects
The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Transformers
HOPE: Transformers - AWW.
PREDICT: The Golden Compass - CORRECT!
I'm not big on visual effects.
Writing: Adapted Screenplay
Atonement
Away From Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
HOPE: No Country For Old Men - HOORAY!
PREDICT: No Country For Old Men - CORRECT!
That movie was complicated. But it all made sense. Well, eventually. After thinking about it for awhile.
Writing: Original Screenplay
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages
HOPE: The Savages - AWW.
PREDICT: Michael Clayton - WRONG. MAN THIS MOVIE GOT PRETTY HOSED.
and that's it. We'll see how way off I was. When watching tonight, just remember. The Oscars, while not as ridiculous as the Grammys, have a history of snubbing some of the greatest films ever made. So like, don't get too upset about it.
I just wish Before The Devil Knows You're Dead was up for SOMETHING. But that's not how it works, is it?
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